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St.Galler Kantonalbank's "Horizons" forum highlighted the economic landscape of Eastern Switzerland, noting strong consumer activity but weak industrial demand, particularly from Germany. The automotive sector faces significant challenges due to global competition, especially from China, while local firms like Bühler thrive through innovation. The importance of maintaining EU trade agreements was emphasized, as they are crucial for the region's economic stability.
The economy in Appenzell Ausserrhoden is facing challenges, with over half of industrial companies reporting low order backlogs due to weak foreign demand, despite solid domestic market performance. Experts predict a slow recovery, influenced by uneven global growth, particularly in Europe, while the US economy remains a growth engine. The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, driven by new technologies and market conditions, necessitating changes in business models and skills.
St. Galler Kantonalbank hosted an event focusing on the regional economy, the EU, and the USA, featuring insights from experts on the automotive industry and investment strategies. Dominik Schmidlin highlighted a mixed economic outlook for Eastern Switzerland, with stable domestic markets but weak foreign demand, particularly from southern Germany. Meanwhile, Thomas Stucki noted that the global economy is expected to grow unevenly, with the USA continuing as a growth engine despite Germany's decline.
Economic experts highlighted a mixed economic landscape in Eastern Switzerland, with a stable domestic market contrasted by a weakening industrial sector due to low foreign demand. While optimism remains cautious, the region's recovery is hindered by ongoing global economic challenges, particularly in Europe. The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, driven by new technologies and market conditions, necessitating shifts in business models and skills.
Thomas Stucki, Head of Investment at St.Galler Kantonalbank, remains optimistic about the US economy and equities, while expressing concerns about Germany's economic outlook. He anticipates no recession, low interest rates, and a gradual recovery in Europe, driven by Spain's economy. Stucki advises caution with emerging markets and suggests a small allocation to gold for security.
The St. Galler Kantonalbank forecasts further interest rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank, but not below zero, while emphasizing the attractiveness of high-dividend equities in a low-rate environment. Bitcoin is deemed a speculative asset unsuitable for strategic allocation, contrasting with gold, which remains a reasonable hedge. Geopolitical risks are acknowledged but viewed as short-term fluctuations rather than decisive factors.
St. Galler Kantonalbank forecasts further interest rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank, but not below 0%, while emphasizing the attractiveness of high-dividend equities in a low-rate environment. Despite the strong performance of gold and Bitcoin, the latter is deemed a speculative asset unsuitable for strategic allocation, with significant price volatility and high correlation to stocks.
St. Galler Kantonalbank anticipates low inflation and interest rates, a strengthening franc, and favorable equity prospects in 2025. Economic growth will vary regionally, with the USA leading, while equities remain attractive despite high valuations, and gold continues to be a reliable safe haven. In contrast, Bitcoin lacks the stability of gold, reacting more to macroeconomic shifts.
Dominik Schmidlin
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